photos by flipchip • lasvegasvegas.com
White ring measures the Lake Mead water level drop

#1 -- Water issues

This is a pretty nice desert. I know, let's put a city here! No, I can't really see water ever being a problem. Why do you ask?

From Feb 2008--

Just over the hills to the east, Lake Mead, which is on the Colorado River, the area's main water source, is literally drying up. Runaway population growth and a historic drought have rendered the nation's largest reservoir a virtual drainage ditch, down to a skeletal 48 percent of capacity

Lake Mead having dropped to historic levels back in 2004 was indeed a large and loud signal that perhaps there was potential for some real future problems of the widespread hardship, misery, disease, and even death kind. There's Harry Reid's solution....

He co-sponsored a law granting the Southern Nevada Water Authority a free right-of-way on federal land to pipe groundwater into Las Vegas from central Nevada, hundreds of miles away. The $3 billion plumbing plan would tap the Great Basin aquifer, a vast underground sink that runs from Death Valley, in California, across central Nevada and into western Utah.

And here's a related blurb about the same from Popular Mechanics, presented in a "gosh, this is really the only idea/option, but look, they're wrangling!" fashion.

As cities across the Southwest boom, such wrangling over water projects seems destined to accelerate. Meanwhile, the Las Vegas plan is moving forward. The SNWA hopes to complete the approval process in 2009, and turn on the faucets by 2014.

or, there's this one, from someone who sounds like he realizes that breakdowns will begin to manifest themselves much sooner than 2014. Of course, his solution doesn't really help anyone acquire or maintain any lucrative deals:

Hang on tight Vegans. (or is it Vegasites? Surely there's a proper term here, but Vegans is fun, so let's stick with it.)

Bonus possibility: The CDC, partnering with Merck, rolls out a new water vaccine around Q2 2009. It contains crucial genes from the most robust species of camel, greatly reducing individual need for water. Federal legislation (The Hydration Freedom Act of 2009) is rushed through, mandating the shot for all LV residents and laying the groundwork for a similar global program to be implemented in all desert states and regions by the UN to "prevent mounting global instability." Toilets begin to go out of fashion as everyone saves their own urine "just in case."

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photos by flipchip • lasvegasvegas.com
Rail cars filled with high level nuclear waste will move through Las Vegas

#2 -- Yucca Mountain

Where are we going to put this nuclear waste? How bout the desert? The only people that exist out there are degenerate gamblers....

Admittedly, the chances of Disaster via Yucca are low, at least in the near term. There has been a goodly amount of fight from Nevada residents, and Governor Gibbons has vowed to continue fighting the project as long as he has the position. However, the Bush administration recently submitted the formal application for the site, demonstrating that efforts to push the site are still rolling forward, however slowly.

Edward F. Sproat, manager of the Yucca project, confirmed that the department now believes it may be 2020 before the waste site can be opened, assuming the NRC grants a license. And he said even that target may not be met if Congress does not provide a steady money stream.

But it is exactly this creeping pace that puts the Yucca Mountain Project on the list--it's the Mor Furniture meets Bloated Government project*. Governor Gibbons and Sen. Reid may be fighting the project, but what about their successors? One also shouldn't discount the possibility that one or both might have a "change of heart" about the project and begin advocating for the project. After all, these are political creatures we're speaking of...

*(Yucca Mountain, no completion till 2020! Gosh, that's like forever, and stuff-that sounds like a really good deal.)

2020 may seem like a long ways off, but it's still too near when contemplating the possibilities, like the fault line running underneath the proposed Yucca storage area (See Disaster #5 for more).

DOE, Current Storage Methods for Radioactive Waste

DOE, Waste Locations by State

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photos by flipchip • lasvegasvegas.com
Empty homes proliferate across the Las Vegas landscape

#3 -- Real Estate Crisis

Come invest in Vegas Real Estate, it's HOT! Real Estate is never devalued, and it's not like water is a problem. Now, what are these "foreclosures" you speak of?

There's the emergence of The Strip Mall Blues.

There was the recent foreclosure of The Cosmopolitan project.

The developer of the Cosmopolitan Resort Casino, a $3.9 billion condo-hotel complex on the Las Vegas Strip, has been notified by its primary lender that it will begin foreclosure proceedings.

Which was busto #2 for Bruce Eichner, the developer on the project.

Sixteen years ago, developer Ian Bruce Eichner was forced to give his lenders the keys to his newly finished office tower in Times Square. The empty building, a symbol of one of the worst downturns in U.S. commercial real-estate history, ultimately cost his lenders and partners about $200 million.

Nice work if you can get it, I suppose. The news was met with shrugs by most, but surely will be paid close attention by many as attested to by Las Vegas Review Journal--

Eichner told the Wall Street Journal last week that 83 percent of the project's condominium units have been sold, with buyers putting down 20 percent nonrefundable deposits on sales totaling $1.35 billion.

I wonder what the over/under is of the month-to-month continued construction deal between Deutsche Bank and Perini (general contractor on the project) holding up as the months tick by? And for those of the mind that it's not so bad, here's the latest deal that's going bust before it goes bust.

Now that the boring business shite is past us, we can focus on something really important. Celebrity Hardship! (What's the over/under on this becoming its own television show sometime in the next decade? Promo: You think your life is bad, just look at how far these large-livin celebrities have fallen! Stay tuned, we have Ashlee Simpson on tape giving our sound guy a hand job for crack!)

(June 4) Ed McMahon, the longtime sidekick to Johnny Carson on "The Tonight Show," is fighting to avoid foreclosure on his multimillion-dollar Beverly Hills estate. [...] "He's not alone. There are plenty of people affected by the weak economy, bad housing market or bad health," McMahon's spokesman, Howard Bragman, said late Tuesday.

Celebrities: Sub-prime, only with more zeros than you.

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photos by flipchip • lasvegasvegas.com
Gasoline prices climb into the stratosphere

#4 -- Food/Oil/General Commodities Inflation

We have farmers all over that can grow their own food! All you need is water, and as we've stated previously, that is definitely NOT a problem. What do you mean you don't want to pay $80 per entrée for a nice meal? Are you poor or something? Sorry dude, I thought you were paying in Euros...

While it's doubtful that price hikes on Hot Pockets are large enough to cause a general uproar, folks still choosing to eat real food have definitely noticed some stark changes over the last few years. As an example, let's look at MarketWatch article from June 2007-

Here's another sobering set of facts. As reported recently in the Wall Street Journal commodity "cash prices" section, wholesale prices of key food items have risen dramatically from a year ago:

-- Butter prices are up 31%

-- Cheddar cheese prices, up 65%

-- Nonfat dry milk prices, up 117%

-- Broiler chickens, up 17.5%

-- Beef, select, up 12.8%

Once again, that was June of last year. How have things been through the year since then?

(CNN) --The price of oil has doubled over the past year. A barrel of crude oil cost about $65 in June 2007; it is currently hovering around $130 a barrel.

Certainly this issue is not unique to Las Vegas by any means. However, Vegans should be asking themselves just how much of the food in Vegas is grown locally, or even nearby? The question is not how much food is available, but also how is it going to get to your table (Here's a small version)?

Also worth recalling is the fact that it was less than two months ago mainstream media was alive** with headlines of rice rationing by several major retailers as well as food riots in Haiti, Bangladesh, and Egypt.

**(well, alive as they could be while getting shoved into oblivion by the latest newsflash in the "Britney Spears Flashes Funbags to Class of Retarded Schoolchildren" vein)

Whilst the vacuous heads all over the teevee ply their soothing calmative wares emanating from the mouths of various "experts" (analysis like "I don't know why people are worrying about it. I mean how many people really need to buy 20lb bags of rice?") has abated somewhat, things continue to unwind and are increasingly likely to topple a dinner table and/or leave a gas tank empty near you.

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photos by flipchip • lasvegasvegas.com

Frenchman Mountain is visible from anywhere in the Las Vegas Valley

#5 -- Fault Lines

When this city's a rockin', don't come'a knockin'. Few know that Vegas Valley lies on seven major fault lines, and if they did, it would probably make people reluctant to invest in Real Estate. Waitaminute.....who told? This must mean that #3 was caused by a leak. Once that gets fixed, the market be hot hot HOT again! Attention Citizens: Any mention of the fault lines will be construed as trying to incite panic and interference with the United States Economy, a terrorist offense that will be dealt with to the fullest extent of the law. Now, if you'll look over here I have an amazing 3-bedroom in Green Valley...

From Las Vegas Review-Journal, 05/02/03--

"The valley is surrounded by a big, deep-faulted basin that would shake like a bowl of Jell-O if struck by a major earthquake and would continue to shake until the energy dissipates," [Assistant Geophysics Professor at UNLV] Snelson said.

The most hazardous fault is widely considered to be the Frenchman Mountain fault east of Las Vegas, said Craig dePolo, a research geologist for the Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology.

You can see the Frenchman Fault on this topographical map from the Las Vegas Valley Seismic Response Project (LVVSRP). Come visit the Frenchman Fault, just a short driving distance from the Strip! Shuttles running hourly!

There has not been a major earthquake in the Las Vegas Valley since it was settled during the mid-19th century, and earthquakes are also practically impossible to predict. The valley might see a major Richter event tomorrow, or there might be nary a tremor for another 1000 years. However, on Feb 21 2008, Wells, NV residents were hit with a 6.0 earthquake, so really, how hard is it to imagine that such a thing might happen to the Las Vegas Valley?

Would you bet the (or rather, "your") house on it? It would seem that if you're an owner in the Valley, you may have done just that--

We disclose airport noise, gaming, new road construction and construction defects, but have little concern for a Green Valley home being built on the Whitney Mesa Fault.