Forbes is reporting on a quarterly report out of the University of California says the US economy, while not technically in a recession, is having a 'near recession experience.'

The UCLA study released today predicts real US economic growth will be just above 1 pct in the last quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2008, and says the deterioration of the housing market is to blame.
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The forecast predicts the US economy will return to a 3 pct growth rate by 2009, and that the Fed will cut the federal funds rate to 4 pct by the end of this year, more than a full percentage point lower than the current 5.25 pct.

But in other news today the dollar fell to an all-time low against the euro today and oil prices surged to a record, suggesting that a weaker American economy will be accompanied by higher prices for energy and other imported goods.

Early this afternoon one euro was trading at $1.391, up from $1.384 on Tuesday evening; the euro is up 5.4 percent against the dollar so far this year and about 1 percent so far this week. Crude oil prices were up 2.2 percent, to $79.91 a barrel

Home market crash, credit crash, rising oil prices, rising product prices, and poisoned toys from China. If we don't see a recession, it's still going to be tough Christmas season.