There are some real gems of poker wisdom out there and Morton’s Theorem is certainly one of the best. Morton’s is basically a parallel theory to Slansky’s General Theorem of Poker which simply states, “When your opponent makes a mistake, you profit.” Slansky’s General is a great theory for heads-up play. In multi-way pots with calling stations and schools of fish; that is, on-line poker games, Morton’s is far more appropriate. Morton’s states: “When there is a multi-way pot the individual errors of opponents are reduced by the larger pot size.” In other words, hands with greater draw potential have an increased value as they will make their draw more often and in multi-way pots drawing hands usually win. The value of pairs is significantly reduced while the value of hands with nut-draw potential is increased. Very often the most unlikely straights, flushes and full houses will take down the pot crushing wired large over-pairs. So how has this affected my play? Simple! I put a lot less value on over-pairs in a multi-way pot. Almost all straight or flush draws that complete on the river will win the money, crushing the big pair starting hands. Hands with solid draw potential (suited connectors, Ace-any suited) I’ll limp in for the flop and if I hit 2 out of the three needed for my hand, multi-way pot odds usually make calling a no-brainer.

What is the best play with large over pairs? Hopefully, you have paid attention to the game and know how your opponents play in given situations. In a relatively tight game you should try to chase the draws out of the pot and win right there. You may end up in a heads up match and then play the flop very aggressively to again end the hand and take the money. In a loose game, I tend to shy away from playing these hands too aggressively. When my pair flops into trips and I don’t see many draws on the turn I’ll play aggressively; but, with draws on the board and more then 3 people in the pot my odds of winning are greatly reduced. This is the root of Morton’s Theorem, each individual player has a minute chance of cracking your hand; but, when the players in a multi-way are taken together they have better then 50/50 of besting your large pair. A classic case of the sum of the players being much greater than the individual players. You can also check out this excellent article on pot odds to decide what to do.

Lately, in tracking my play I’ve noticed the hands that are costing me the most are Q-Q, J-J and 10-10. When holding these three pairs and there is an over card and aggressive play it’s an automatic fold for me. The really difficult problem comes with my large over-pair (or trips) and the river brings the straight/flush. Of course, I’m very much pot committed (having raised the trips every time) at this time even though one of the calling stations has hit. It becomes a very difficult but exactly correct lay-down.

This brings up an interesting hand from a loose 2/4 game that illustrates the power of draws in multi-way. I’m on the button with Q-Q. Before the action gets to me there are 3 players in the pot and two raises. I re-raise and the small blind caps. Everyone calls. So 5 handed pre-flop and already $40 in the pot. The flop comes:

Qc 10h 7c

Ding! A 4th of July spectacular is going off in my head! By the time the action gets to me there are already 3 raises, so I cap. The turn is a total blank, 3d. Betting caps again, and it’s now a monster (for a 2/4 game) $160 pot. Now comes the river, the Ac.
The final board is:

Qc 10h 7c 3d Ac

Betting caps again and everyone stays in. My nut hand on the flop isn’t even third best, it’s 4th! The worst hand was pocket 10’s, then my Queens, next was pocket Aces, 2nd place went to a K-Jo and the lucky winner of the $240 pot? The 5-3 of clubs for a flush.

There is one pocket pair that is an exception to all of this hypothetical nonsense, Aces. Even ten handed, played to the river, Aces win a third of the time. This most powerful of all big pairs tend to make money no matter what. Contrary to what I often hear at the tables, I'll take the pocket rockets every hand.

On-line poker a game of chance or a game of skill?

I’ve been thinking about this quite a bit lately and wonder, is on-line poker a game of skill? Will it be able to meet the existing legal criteria required to make it a game of skill? And what, exactly, makes poker a game of skill? The existing live game structure has produced many players that make their livelihood through the skills they bring to the poker table.
What factors go into winning through skill? I cannot find the elements our legal system used to determine that poker is a game of skill (perhaps there are no elements and skill is implied), so I am forced to hypothesize on what these factors are likely to be. In traditional poker there is the betting strategy, reading your opponent(s) and strength of table position. These three elements combine to make live poker a game of skill; because, through development and application of the three you can win the pot without having the best hand. It’s interesting to note from what I have been able to discover that the law favors stud poker as a game of skill but not draw poker.

Betting strategy and table position are both elements present in on-line poker; but how about reading your opponents? Obviously, reading tells isn’t present in the same form or to the degree found in traditional poker so the question becomes, “How necessary are skills to read opponents tells in making poker a game of skill? If reads are totally removed all that’s left are the bet and table position; then, without the ability to have a feel for what the opponent maybe holding it becomes more like draw poker. But, this is not the case, there are on-line tells and ways to read past the tiny little pixilated avatars of your opponents. The problem traditional players have with the on line reads is shifting their skills to tells of a generally different form. I present a few intuitive on line tells:

1. If an opponent is using the auto-check/bet button it’s usually a good indication they don’t have a hand when the autocheck is activated or do have a hand in the case of autobet.
2. Past betting/playing tactics, will give me a good idea of where a player stands in a hand.
3. A bet or raise on 4th/5th street by a checking opponent is a solid indication they improved their drawing hand.

Of course, the sophisticated player may be presenting misinformation and setting a trap, another level of skill.

So there are on-line tells and when combined with traditional game elements on line poker would appear to be very much a game of skill. If on line poker is a game of skill, can I make a living at it?

Part II. The three certainties in life: Death, Taxes, and reading this joke.

Taxes & IRS

In 1987, the Supreme Court issued a decision upholding a taxpayer’s claim that his gambling (playing poker) constituted a business. The Supreme Court ruled that the proper test to determine if an activity is a “trade or business” is that the taxpayer must be involved in the activity with regularity and continuity with the primary purpose or expectation of making a profit. A quote from the Supreme Court’s ruling follows:

“If a taxpayer devotes his full-time activity to gambling and it is his intended livelihood source, it would seem that basic concepts of fairness demand that his activity be regarded as a trade or business just as any other readily accepted activity, such as being a retail store proprietor or, to come closer categorically, a casino operator or an active trader on the exchanges.”

The Court went on to further clarify its’ opinion by stating:

“A sporadic activity, a hobby, or an amusement diversion does not qualify.”

Poker is the one card game where the best hand does not always win the money. There are two basic ways to win in poker; either have the best hand or through your actions convince your opponent you have the best hand. If the winner was always the best hand poker would be a game of chance. The best a player could expect over the long haul would be to break even and after subtracting the rake would always show a loss. This would be an easy call for the IRS since it does not meet any of the above criteria; therefore, we must assume that poker is a game of skill and the professional poker player can earn their livelihood by developing and using specialized skill sets whither in a live game or playing on the Internet.

I am certain that the first test of on line poker as a game of skill is nigh at hand and probably will come in the form of the IRS attempting to disallow a taxpayer’s claim of being a professional poker player. Everyone playing Internet poker should always declare all winning and deductions to the extent allowed by the IRS code.

I’ve played poker in Las Vegas for about three decades and remember playing at the Dunes when it was a contract room run by Johnny Moss with three tables sharing space with Keno. The big-time room in those days was the Sahara. You might well see Major Riddle, owner of the Dunes, slugging it out in a no limit ring game. One of the Sahara room dealers told about the time he was dealing the big game when the Major raised a pot with a “hand written on a napkin” title to the Dunes. I have played in most of the rooms in Vegas over the years and have been an observer of the waxing and waning of the poker industry. I was there opening day for the absolutely superb room at the Las Vegas Hilton. (In my opinion the finest poker room the city has ever seen); but, I have never seen anything even close to the current popularity of poker. Everyone now plays America’s favorite game. Most Vegas poker rooms have a player wait list for a seat to open up. Poker has been around in a little changed form for more than a century so why all the interest?
Indian casinos, tournaments on television and the Internet. Online casinos offering 24/7 action from the comfort of your home has to be the single most important factor for making poker so popular. The digital generation has grown up staring at the tube for most of their needs so the evolution of casino poker to an internet game was a natural. Internet casinos have provided the industry with the same meteoric growth curve that video poker machines did for slot departments. Players find the online experience to be much more appealing and less intimidating than sitting across the table from live players. An additional benefit is retaining your anonymity, screwing up on the tube is much less an embarrassment than doing so in a live game. Is Internet poker the same game played in Las Vegas poker rooms? In one word, No! When I play online certain elements of the game that I rely on are not there. I will never see any hole cards flashed, something I can usually count on to give me a pot or save me from contributing to a losing one (I love sunglasses, especially the mirrored ones where I can often catch a flash of color). I can study the little avatars forever and never see one bead of sweat, they never play with their chips, their nostrils don’t contract when they gulp for air and the slight facial muscle twitch just isn’t there. I can’t watch the other players reacting to the flop. I can’t hear the nervous chatter or watch the inexperienced players make rookie mistakes. Hell, I can’t even identify the rookies. What are the online tells? Do they exist? Can virtual reality nuisances be complied into some useable format that will give you a slight advantage? I have discussed this with my learned peers and they assure me that there are certain tells that may be gleaned from the small screen; but, so slight that it offers no discernable advantage. I have always been a little suspicious of the online casinos and those random number generators operating in an unregulated medium, but again, the wise ones tell me my worries are for naught. I realize that I am acting like a paranoid fool; but after all, paranoid people do have enemies too.
So, what do I see as the most obvious difference between online and live games? It has to be the cocktail girls. I live in Las Vegas so the drinks are free and provided non stop by scantily clad young ladies. When I am playing online I have to not only get my own refreshments but I have to pay for them. When I am playing in a casino and have a losing session I can always take comfort in knowing that I did have quite a few “free” drinks (How many cokes can you buy with eight hundred?). How can the online casinos ever offer this convenience? And how about those little avatars sitting stone-faced around the virtual table? How long before I can design my own character or buy a custom creation from some clever entrepreneur? How long before the onscreen game figures have their own set of tells, interact with each other, yell obscenities, throw cards, smoke, get drunk, splash pots, string bet, crowd your table space, spill drinks, tell really bad jokes, use every single poker cliché in one sentence and relate every detail of every bad beat ever suffered. I can hardly wait for the next evolutionary level of realism. Speaking of bad beats, I once was third with quad kings.